Which division is hardest to call?
Every football fan has a hunch about which league is the most chaotic. This puts a number on it. We take Sportmonks' predictability model for each division and rank them by how hard the results are to forecast. Higher means more upsets, more "anyone beats anyone".
The chaos table
Beyond the result
Predictability isn't just about who wins. Here's how forecastable each division is across two other questions: will both teams score, and will there be over 2.5 goals. More negative = harder to call.
| Division | Result | Both teams score | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | -1.130 | -0.683 | -0.704 |
| League One | -1.111 | -0.707 | -0.704 |
| Premier League | -1.099 | -0.700 | -0.690 |
| National League | -1.095 | -0.704 | -0.700 |
| League Two | -1.092 | -0.704 | -0.695 |
How we measure chaos
Sportmonks runs a prediction model on every league and reports how confident it can be across each betting market. We take the full-time result score (a model log-score, where more negative means the model is less sure) and turn it into a relative 0-100 index across the English divisions: the hardest-to-predict league scores 100, the most predictable scores 0.
It's a comparison of these divisions against each other, not an absolute measure. A high score means results swing more, favourites slip up more often, and form is a worse guide.
Source: Sportmonks predictability model. Refreshed daily.