Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WHU West Ham United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | 21% | 57% | 9% |
| 2 | BRFC Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 68% | 14% |
| 3 | CAFC Charlton Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 14% | 64% | 17% |
| 4 | PFC Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 15% | 63% | 14% |
| 5 | MFC Middlesbrough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 24% | 54% | 6% |
| 6 | WBA West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 63% | 11% |
| 7 | BCFC Birmingham City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 61% | 9% |
| 8 | BWFC Bolton Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 12% | 65% | 17% |
| 9 | SUFC Sheffield United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 12% | 66% | 17% |
| 10 | DCFC Derby County | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 23% | 55% | 6% |
| 11 | WFC Watford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 64% | 10% |
| 12 | SCFC Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 66% | 17% |
| 13 | BFC Burnley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 18% | 65% | 11% |
| 14 | WWFC Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 13% | 64% | 19% |
| 15 | SCFC Swansea City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 24% | 54% | 6% |
| 16 | NCFC Norwich City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 17% | 63% | 12% |
| 17 | QPR Queens Park Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 19% | 61% | 10% |
| 18 | MFC Millwall | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 20% | 60% | 10% |
| 19 | SFC Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 16% | 65% | 12% |
| 20 | CCFC Cardiff City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 12% | 65% | 18% |
| 21 | PNE Preston North End | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 12% | 67% | 18% |
| 22 | BCFC Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 16% | 65% | 12% |
| 23 | WAFC Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 18% | 62% | 10% |
| 24 | LCFC Lincoln City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 14% | 64% | 17% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.