Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Champion | Europe | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAFC Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 31% | 50% | 14% |
| 2 | THFC Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 32% | 48% | 13% |
| 3 | LFC Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 31% | 51% | 13% |
| 4 | MCFC Manchester City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 32% | 47% | 15% |
| 5 | FFC Fulham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 30% | 51% | 14% |
| 6 | EFC Everton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 30% | 51% | 14% |
| 7 | MUFC Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 31% | 50% | 15% |
| 8 | AVFC Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 30% | 51% | 15% |
| 9 | CFC Chelsea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 30% | 50% | 15% |
| 10 | AFC Arsenal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 41% | 40% | 8% |
| 11 | NUFC Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 30% | 50% | 16% |
| 12 | HCFC Hull City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 30% | 50% | 15% |
| 13 | CPFC Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 28% | 53% | 15% |
| 14 | AFCB AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| 15 | NFFC Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 27% | 52% | 17% |
| 16 | LUFC Leeds United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 28% | 51% | 16% |
| 17 | BHA Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 29% | 51% | 16% |
| 18 | ITFC Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 29% | 52% | 17% |
| 19 | CCFC Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 26% | 53% | 17% |
| 20 | BFC Brentford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 26% | 52% | 18% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.