Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAFC Wigan Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 15% | 60% | 18% |
| 2 | RFC Reading | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 19% | 57% | 13% |
| 3 | BFC Blackpool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 18% | 60% | 14% |
| 4 | LCFC Leicester City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 61% | 21% |
| 5 | BFC Barnsley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 55% | 14% |
| 6 | SWFC Sheffield Wednesday | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 60% | 21% |
| 7 | NCFC Notts County | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 17% | 58% | 16% |
| 8 | PAFC Plymouth Argyle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 12% | 60% | 23% |
| 9 | LTFC Luton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 59% | 15% |
| 10 | BCAFC Bradford City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 61% | 20% |
| 11 | BAFC Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 60% | 14% |
| 12 | WWFC Wycombe Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 17% | 57% | 15% |
| 13 | MTFC Mansfield Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 12% | 61% | 23% |
| 14 | CUFC Cambridge United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 58% | 17% |
| 15 | DRFC Doncaster Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 57% | 12% |
| 16 | SCFC Stockport County | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 19% | 57% | 14% |
| 17 | HTAFC Huddersfield Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 18% | 58% | 16% |
| 18 | PUFC Peterborough United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% | 59% | 23% |
| 19 | LOFC Leyton Orient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 56% | 13% |
| 20 | BFC Bromley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 23% | 54% | 8% |
| 21 | OUFC Oxford United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 19% | 57% | 15% |
| 22 | AWFC AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 16% | 60% | 17% |
| 23 | MK Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 12% | 60% | 24% |
| 24 | SFC Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 19% | 57% | 14% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.