Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUFC Scunthorpe United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 27% | 54% | 14% |
| 2 | SUFC Southend United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 27% | 53% | 15% |
| 3 | TFC Tamworth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 19% | 56% | 23% |
| 4 | FGR Forest Green Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 25% | 56% | 15% |
| 5 | BUFC Boston United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 27% | 55% | 14% |
| 6 | ATFC Aldershot Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 24% | 56% | 16% |
| 7 | EFC Eastleigh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 32% | 51% | 10% |
| 8 | WFC Wealdstone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 19% | 55% | 24% |
| 9 | YTFC Yeovil Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 32% | 50% | 11% |
| 10 | SUFC Sutton United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 26% | 54% | 16% |
| 11 | HUFC Hartlepool United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 28% | 53% | 16% |
| 12 | GFC Gateshead | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 24% | 55% | 17% |
| 13 | CUFC Carlisle United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 23% | 56% | 16% |
| 14 | FY Fylde | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 19% | 56% | 23% |
| 15 | BA Barrow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 25% | 55% | 16% |
| 16 | HTFC Harrogate Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 31% | 51% | 11% |
| 17 | WFC Woking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 25% | 53% | 17% |
| 18 | FCHT Halifax Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 24% | 55% | 17% |
| 19 | KHFC Kidderminster Harriers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 32% | 50% | 12% |
| 20 | BWFC Boreham Wood | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 24% | 56% | 16% |
| 21 | SMFC Solihull Moors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 31% | 53% | 11% |
| 22 | AFC Altrincham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 16% | 58% | 24% |
| 23 | AHFC AFC Hornchurch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 17% | 55% | 26% |
| 24 | WO Worthing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 23% | 55% | 19% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.