Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BWFC Bolton Wanderers | 3 | 9 | +8 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 1 | LOFC Leyton Orient | 3 | 9 | +4 | 16% | 29% | 56% | — |
| 1 | CUFC Colchester United | 3 | 9 | +4 | 12% | 26% | 62% | — |
| 1 | SFC Stevenage | 3 | 9 | +8 | 13% | 29% | 58% | — |
| 1 | STFC Swindon Town | 3 | 6 | +4 | 1% | 4% | 95% | — |
| 1 | TRFC Tranmere Rovers | 3 | 9 | +2 | 12% | 28% | 60% | — |
| 1 | DRFC Doncaster Rovers | 3 | 9 | +6 | 6% | 21% | 74% | — |
| 1 | BRFC Bristol Rovers | 3 | 9 | +2 | 16% | 28% | 56% | — |
| 1 | NTFC Northampton Town | 3 | 9 | +5 | 13% | 25% | 61% | — |
| 1 | CAFC Crewe Alexandra | 3 | 9 | +10 | 10% | 23% | 67% | — |
| 1 | LCFC Lincoln City | 3 | 9 | +8 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 1 | HTFC Harrogate Town | 3 | 9 | +4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 1 | LTFC Luton Town | 3 | 6 | +3 | 3% | 11% | 87% | — |
| 1 | SCFC Salford City | 3 | 9 | +6 | 40% | 31% | 29% | — |
| 1 | CCFC Cardiff City | 3 | 6 | +2 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 1 | FTFC Fleetwood Town | 3 | 9 | +4 | 30% | 32% | 38% | — |
| 2 | BAFC Burton Albion | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 2 | BFC Blackpool | 3 | 6 | +5 | 5% | 15% | 81% | — |
| 2 | BFC Barnsley | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 2 | WA Walsall | 3 | 6 | +1 | 1% | 4% | 95% | — |
| 2 | PAFC Plymouth Argyle | 3 | 6 | +5 | 2% | 7% | 91% | — |
| 2 | BCAFC Bradford City | 3 | 6 | +3 | 1% | 3% | 97% | — |
| 2 | RUFC Rotherham United | 3 | 6 | +2 | — | 3% | 96% | — |
| 2 | WWFC Wycombe Wanderers | 3 | 6 | +4 | 3% | 11% | 86% | — |
| 2 | ECFC Exeter City | 3 | 6 | +1 | 1% | 5% | 94% | — |
| 2 | CUFC Cambridge United | 3 | 6 | +2 | 1% | 7% | 92% | — |
| 2 | SCFC Stockport County | 3 | 6 | 0 | — | 3% | 97% | — |
| 2 | HTAFC Huddersfield Town | 3 | 6 | +5 | 1% | 7% | 92% | — |
| 2 | PUFC Peterborough United | 3 | 6 | +1 | 1% | 6% | 93% | — |
| 2 | AWFC AFC Wimbledon | 3 | 6 | -1 | 4% | 15% | 80% | — |
| 2 | PVFC Port Vale | 3 | 6 | +5 | 1% | 4% | 95% | — |
| 2 | WHU West Ham United U21 | 3 | 6 | +3 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | LUFC Liverpool U21 | 3 | 3 | -4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | GTFC Grimsby Town | 3 | 3 | -2 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | STFC Shrewsbury Town | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | BFC Bromley | 3 | 3 | -2 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | GFC Gillingham | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | NCFC Newport County | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | BFC Barnet | 3 | 6 | -2 | 2% | 9% | 90% | — |
| 3 | CTFC Cheltenham Town | 3 | 3 | -3 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | BA Barrow | 3 | 3 | -4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | RFC Reading | 3 | 6 | +2 | 4% | 15% | 81% | — |
| 3 | ASFC Accrington Stanley | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | WUFC Wolves U21 | 3 | 3 | -3 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | MCU Manchester City U21 | 3 | 3 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | NUU Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 3 | -6 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | CTFC Crawley Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 3 | MUU Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | -4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | CFC Chesterfield | 3 | 3 | -5 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | NFU Nottingham Forest U21 | 3 | 0 | -3 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | EUFC Everton U21 | 3 | 0 | -7 | — | — | 3% | 97% |
| 4 | FUFC Fulham U21 | 3 | 0 | -7 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 4 | LUU Leeds United U21 | 3 | 0 | -8 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 4 | NCFC Notts County | 3 | 3 | -4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | CUFC Chelsea U21 | 3 | 0 | -5 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | TUFC Tottenham U21 | 3 | 0 | -4 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | BUFC Brighton U21 | 3 | 0 | -3 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | MK Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | -9 | — | — | 99% | 1% |
| 4 | CPU Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 0 | -5 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | AVU Aston Villa U21 | 3 | 0 | -5 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | AUFC Arsenal U21 | 3 | 3 | -2 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 4 | MTFC Mansfield Town | 3 | 0 | -3 | — | — | 99% | 1% |
| 4 | OAFC Oldham Athletic | 3 | 0 | -9 | — | — | 99% | 1% |
| 4 | WAFC Wigan Athletic | 3 | 0 | -3 | — | — | 100% | — |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.