Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CE Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19% | 33% | 24% | 24% |
| 2 | RA Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 35% | 23% | 25% |
| 3 | HI Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26% | 38% | 21% | 15% |
| 4 | KI Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 34% | 26% | 23% |
| 5 | AB Aberdeen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 35% | 27% | 23% |
| 6 | DUFC Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 33% | 25% | 25% |
| 7 | DU Dundee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 34% | 24% | 25% |
| 8 | MO Motherwell | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 34% | 26% | 25% |
| 9 | HE Hearts | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 27% | 28% | 36% |
| 10 | SMFC St. Mirren | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 33% | 26% | 25% |
| 11 | SJFC St. Johnstone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14% | 31% | 28% | 27% |
| 12 | FA Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 33% | 24% | 28% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.