Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BWFC Birmingham W | 22 | 44 | +22 | 100% | — | — | — |
| 2 | CPW Crystal Palace W | 22 | 44 | +18 | 100% | — | — | — |
| 3 | CWFC Charlton W | 22 | 42 | +10 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 4 | BCW Bristol City W | 22 | 37 | +16 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | SWFC Southampton W | 22 | 35 | +18 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 6 | NUW Newcastle United W | 22 | 33 | +7 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 7 | NFW Nottingham Forest W | 22 | 30 | -8 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 8 | SWFC Sunderland W | 22 | 24 | -7 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 9 | ITW Ipswich Town W | 22 | 23 | -16 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 10 | DWFC Durham W | 22 | 22 | -8 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 11 | SWFC Sheffield Utd W | 22 | 18 | -22 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 12 | PWFC Portsmouth W | 22 | 14 | -30 | — | — | — | 100% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.