Race Watch
Monte Carlo simulation of how each English league finishes. Promotion, play-off, mid-table and relegation probabilities based on current standings, remaining fixtures, and form. Refreshed after every gameweek.
| Pos | Club | P | Pts | GD | Promo | Play-off | Mid | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCW Manchester City W | 22 | 55 | +43 | 100% | — | — | — |
| 2 | AWFC Arsenal W | 22 | 51 | +39 | 100% | — | — | — |
| 3 | CWFC Chelsea W | 22 | 49 | +24 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 4 | MUW Manchester United W | 22 | 40 | +16 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | TWFC Tottenham W | 22 | 36 | -3 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 6 | LCL London City Lionesses W | 22 | 27 | -7 | — | 100% | — | — |
| 7 | BWFC Brighton W | 22 | 26 | -1 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 8 | EWFC Everton W | 22 | 23 | -12 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 9 | AVW Aston Villa W | 22 | 20 | -20 | — | — | 100% | — |
| 10 | WHW West Ham W | 22 | 19 | -25 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 11 | LWFC Liverpool W | 22 | 17 | -13 | — | — | — | 100% |
| 12 | LWFC Leicester W | 22 | 9 | -41 | — | — | — | 100% |
How we calculate this
Each remaining fixture is simulated by an outcome weighted on each team's points-per-game with a small home-advantage adjustment. Draws baseline at 25%. The rest of the season is simulated 2,000 times and the finishing position is tallied per club. The percentages are how often each club lands in each bracket.
This isn't a tactical model. It doesn't know about injuries, head-to-head records, or specific match dynamics. It's a base-rate probability calculator, refreshed after every gameweek. Use it to understand how realistic each scenario is, not as a betting tool.
Simulation runs daily. Cache window: 12 hours.